‘Age of Large-population Countries’ and Marxian Optimal Growth Theory

Author: Hiroshi Onishi, Ryo Kanae
Date: 2014/12
No: DPDP2014-009
JEL Classification codes: E11, N30, O11
Language: English
[ Abstract ]

While it appears that small-population economies were advantageous for growth when Asia’s newly industrialized economies (NIEs) were expanding rapidly, we are now seeing a different trend in which large-population countries like China and India have become the most rapidly growing nations in the world. This is true for the BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a whole. Brazil and Russia also have large populations of over 100 million, and their geopolitical and economic influence is crucial. This is one of the most important features of the present geopolitical economy. The present paper first demonstrates this trend statistically and then proposes the hidden historical law underlying these phenomena. This anti-Malthusian law can be explained by Marxian Optimal Growth Theory, as developed by our research group. This shows that each country experiences its own rapid growth phase over a certain period and finally realizes a higher per capita GDP similar to that of the present advanced nations. Under this trend, GDP balance among countries will become closer to the population balance among countries. It should be a much more equal world.